Bitcoin moved below $63K, and almost immediately the explanations became cleaner.
Oil. Yields. Inflation. Macro pressure.
Those factors may matter. But there is a behavioral trap here: once the outcome is known, the mind reorganizes prior information into a story that makes the move feel more predictable than it actually was beforehand.
That is hindsight bias.
The professional question is not, “Can I explain what just happened?”
It is:
“What evidence was actually available before the move, and would it have justified the same conclusion then?”
A convincing explanation after the fact is not the same as predictive edge.
Today’s IM7 rule:
Judge the decision from the information available before the outcome — not from the clarity that arrived afterward.
Full behavioral breakdown: https://im7intelligence.com/articles/bitcoin-breakdown-explanations-after